Potential impacts of reducing the microregional yield gaps for main food crops in Brazil

Arlei Luiz Fachinello; Cárliton Vieira dos Santos; Dimitri Bessa

doi:10.1590/1806-9479.2022.264953

ARTICLE

Potential impacts of reducing the microregional yield gaps for main food crops in Brazil

Impactos potenciais da redução do hiato de rendimento microrregional das principais culturas alimentares no Brasil

Arlei Luiz Fachinello; Cárliton Vieira dos Santos; Dimitri Bessa

http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/1806-9479.2022.264953 resr, vol.62, n2, e264953, 2024

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Abstract

This study aimed to measure yield gaps and the potential gains in production and revenue from mitigating these gaps for the four main food crops in Brazil and worldwide (rice, maize, soybean, and wheat). Based on the concepts of potential yield, observed yield, and yield gap, and data from the 2017 Brazilian Agricultural Census, a parameter for the potential yield of each crop was defined at the microregional level, and yield gaps and potential gains in production and revenue resulting from reducing these gaps were measured. The results showed that reducing yield gaps in Brazil for the analyzed crops may lead to an expansion in supply of these food products by almost 10% of the volume achieved in 2017, or the equivalent of 19 million tons. The greatest potential gains in yield and production were found for maize, 13.2%, valued at about US$ 1.7 billion (at 2017 prices). Soybean showed the lowest potential for gains in percentage terms (5.5%), but these gains would represent US$ 1.8 billion, the highest value among the crops analyzed.

Keywords

food security, yield gap, food crops in Brazil

Resumo

Resumo: Este estudo teve como objetivo mensurar os hiatos de rendimento e os ganhos potenciais de produção e receita advindos da redução desses hiatos para as quatro principais culturas alimentares do Brasil e do mundo (arroz, milho, soja e trigo). Baseado nos conceitos de rendimento potencial, rendimento observado e hiato de rendimento, e em dados do Censo Agropecuário Brasileiro de 2017, definiu-se um parâmetro para o rendimento potencial de cada cultura, em nível microrregional, e mensuraram-se os hiatos de rendimento e os ganhos potenciais de produção e receita decorrentes da redução desses hiatos. Os resultados revelaram que a redução dos hiatos de rendimento no Brasil para as culturas analisadas pode permitir a ampliação da oferta dessas culturas alimentares em quase 10% do volume registrado em 2017, ou 19 milhões de toneladas. Para o milho foram encontrados os maiores ganhos potenciais em rendimento e produção, 13,2%, valorados em cerca de R$ 5,5 bilhões (a preços de 2017). Já para a soja, identificou-se o menor potencial de ganhos em termos percentuais (5,5%), mas que representariam R$ 5,7 bilhões, o maior valor entre as culturas analisadas.

Palavras-chave

segurança alimentar, hiato de rendimento, culturas alimentares no Brasil

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Submetido em:
13/06/2022

Aceito em:
20/05/2023

Potential impacts of reducing the microregional yield gaps for main food crops in Brazil

Impactos potenciais da redução do hiato de rendimento microrregional das principais culturas alimentares no Brasil

Arlei Luiz Fachinello; Cárliton Vieira dos Santos; Dimitri Bessa

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