Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural
http://www.resr.periodikos.com.br/article/doi/10.1590/1806-9479.2025.290952
Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural
ORIGINAL ARTICLE

Wild pigs (Sus scrofa) population management in Brazil: economic, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions impacts

Manejo de javalis (Sus scrofa) no Brasil: impactos na economia, no uso da terra e nas emissões de gases de efeito estufa

Giovani William Gianetti; Carla Grasiele Zanin Hegel; Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira Filho

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Abstract

This study systematically assesses the impact of wild pig population control on avoidable crop losses in Brazil, along with its economic and environmental implications. By utilizing the TERM-BR15 Computable General Equilibrium model, we conducted simulations for the period from 2023 to 2030. We developed three scenarios that focus on increased yields of corn, soybeans, and sugarcane while varying the intensity of avoidable damage caused by wild pigs through adjustments to parameters such as pig harvest rates and average daily crop intake. The intermediate scenario forecasts a 0.15% increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and a 0.17% rise in real household consumption compared to the baseline of 2030, resulting from effective wild pig population management. This equates to an increase of approximately US$203.18 in GDP and US$151.49 in household consumption for each wild pig managed (based on a BRL to US$ exchange rate of 5). The national output for corn, soybeans, and sugarcane is expected to rise, accompanied by reductions in greenhouse gas emissions intensity and deforestation. Although real GDP is expected to increase across all Brazilian regions, areas not impacted by wild pigs may see a decline in grain production. Our findings offer an evidence-based estimate of the economic and environmental impacts of wild pig crop damage, providing valuable insights for the formulation of public policies aimed at addressing this challenge.

Keywords

wildlife management, wild boar, feral hogs, pest control, computable general equilibrium

Resumo

Resumo: Este estudo avalia sistematicamente o impacto do controle populacional de javalis sobre as perdas agrícolas evitáveis no Brasil, assim como suas implicações econômicas e ambientais. Utilizando o modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Computável TERM-BR15, foram realizadas simulações para o período de 2023 a 2030. Foram desenvolvidos três cenários de aumento da produtividade de milho, soja e cana-de-açúcar, variando a intensidade dos danos evitáveis causados pelos javalis por meio de ajustes em parâmetros como taxas de abate de javalis e a ingestão diária média de lavouras. O cenário intermediário mostrou um aumento de 0,15% no Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) e um crescimento de 0,17% no consumo real das famílias, em comparação ao cenário base de 2030, atribuído ao manejo populacional de javalis. Isso equivale a um aumento de aproximadamente R$ 1.015,90 no PIB e R$ 757,45 no consumo das famílias para cada javali manejado. A produção nacional de milho, soja e cana-de-açúcar aumentaria, acompanhada por reduções na intensidade das emissões de gases de efeito estufa e no desmatamento. Embora o PIB real deva aumentar em todas as regiões do Brasil, áreas não impactadas pelos javalis podem observar uma diminuição na produção de grãos. Os resultados apresentados oferecem uma estimativa baseada em evidências dos impactos econômicos e ambientais dos danos agrícolas causados pelos javalis, o que pode subsidiar políticas públicas para enfrentar essa questão.

Palavras-chave

manejo de fauna, porcos asselvajados, controle de pragas, equilíbrio geral computável

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Submetido em:
08/10/2024

Aceito em:
21/05/2025

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