Did the soybean expansion increase the creation of formal jobs in agricultural frontier areas of Brazil (1996-2018)?

Alejandro Montoya Castaño; Thiago José Arruda de Oliveira

doi:10.1590/1806-9479.2026.305841

ARTIGO ORIGINAL

Did the soybean expansion increase the creation of formal jobs in agricultural frontier areas of Brazil (1996-2018)?

A expansão da soja impulsionou a criação de empregos formais nas áreas de fronteira agrícola do Brasil (1996-2018)?

Alejandro Montoya Castaño; Thiago José Arruda de Oliveira

http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/1806-9479.2026.305841 resr, vol.64, e305841, 2026

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Abstract

Recent literature shows ambiguous socioeconomic effects of soybean expansion in Brazil, but this literature often fails to establish causality. Because the adoption of soybeans is an endogenous process, we employ a novel strategy, based on Synthetic Control Matching and a control group composed of municipalities not producing soybeans but with the geographical conditions to do so, to estimate the effects of the expansion on formal employment, a sector that has also experienced significant growth in the country in recent decades. Our analysis focuses exclusively on the municipalities that comprise the Brazilian agricultural frontier. Results indicate that soybean expansion led to small increases in agricultural jobs, with significant heterogeneities among municipalities, but no effects on other sectors. Our findings also point to economies of specialization in the states of Mato Grosso and specific zones in Bahia, Goiás, and Pará.

Keywords

agriculture, jobs, soybean, synthetic control

Resumo

Resumo: A literatura recente evidencia efeitos socioeconômicos ambíguos devido à expansão da soja no Brasil, ainda sem estabelecer causalidade. Como a adoção desse cultivo constitui-se em um processo endógeno, emprega-se uma estratégia inovadora fundamentada no Método de Controle Sintético e em um grupo controle a fim de estimar os impactos desse processo sobre o emprego formal, que nas últimas décadas também experimentou um crescimento relevante no país. Os resultados indicam que a sojicultura gerou aumentos modestos de trabalhos no setor agrícola, com heterogeneidades significativas entre municípios, sem repercussões nos demais setores. As conclusões também ressaltam a formação de economias especializadas nos estados de Mato Grosso e partes específicas da Bahia, Goiás e Pará.

Palavras-chave

agricultura, emprego, soja, controle sintético

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Submetido em:
24/02/2026

Aceito em:
20/06/2026

Publicado em:
25/08/2026

Did the soybean expansion increase the creation of formal jobs in agricultural frontier areas of Brazil (1996-2018)?

A expansão da soja impulsionou a criação de empregos formais nas áreas de fronteira agrícola do Brasil (1996-2018)?

Alejandro Montoya Castaño; Thiago José Arruda de Oliveira

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